Østergård, Uffe. "Vad hade hänt… Kontrafaktiska hypoteser och 'öppna' situationer i historien och historieforskningen"
Title trans.: "What Had Happened… Counterfactual Hypotheses and 'Open' Situations in History and Historical Research"
Comments: Discussion of the troubled relation between counterfactuals and "ordinary" history, citing some well-known allohistorical works (e.g., Toynbee) and arguing that counterfactual thinking is essential in scenario building and thus useful to, among others, politicians and intelligence services. One such example is of CIA analysts' projection of Soviet bankruptcy.
Published: In Tänk om… Nio kontrafaktiska essär (eds. Lars M. Andersson and Ulf Zander), q.v.
Original in: Swedish.