Lindsey, Forrest R. "Nagumo's Luck: The Battles of Midway and California"
Divergence: 1942 CE
What if: One American pilot decided to turn left instead of right, and as a result none of the Japnese carriers at Midway were sunk.
Summary: When Midway becomes a disaster, the U.S. sacrifices its "Germany first" war plans in order to defend the West Coast. Subsequent attacks on Pearl Harbor, San Diego, and Panama are successfully fought off and Midway only provides Japan with a year's breathing room.
Published: In Rising Sun Victorious: The Alternate History of How the Japanese Won the Pacific War (ed. Peter G. Tsouras), q.v.