Isby, David C. "Afghanistan: The Soviet Victory"
Divergence: 1980 CE
What if: Operation Eagle Claw to rescue the American embassy hostages in Tehran was called off, and afterward Zbigniew Brzezhinski resigned rather than Cyrus Vance.
Summary: How the second Carter administration's soft support for Afghan rebels allowed the Soviet Union to consolidate its grip on Afghanistan and then join with India in an attack on Pakistan.
Published: In Cold War Hot: Alternate Decisions in the East-West Struggle (ed. Peter G. Tsouras), q.v.