Griffith, Paddy. "Vietnam: The War that Nobody Noticed"
Divergence: 1963 CE
What if: The U.S. decided in December 1963 to implement a village-level counterinsurgency program in Vietnam, along with promoting local land ownership and anti-corruption efforts, but restraining core military units for border protection.
Summary: Scenario in which anti-Viet Cong efforts slowly but surely pay off over a ten-year span, while the South Vietnamese army successfully fends off North Vietnamese incursions without need for massive troop support from the U.S.
Published: In Cold War Hot: Alternate Decisions in the East-West Struggle (ed. Peter G. Tsouras), q.v.