Almond, Mark. "1989 without Gorbachev: What if Communism had not collapsed?"
Summary: Mostly a discussion of how the West was willing to accept continued Communist regimes in Eastern Europe because they meant continued stability, but the conclusion speculates that if a hardline government still ran Russia in 1991-92, the Gulf War would have instead been a protracted crisis. Thus, many oil companies would have been setting up cooperative ventures with the USSR for exploitation of the Caspian oil fields.
Published: In Virtual History: Alternatives and Counterfactuals (ed. Niall Ferguson), q.v.